Even a Stopped Clock is Right Twice a Day
Donald Trump’s Tax Policy

If there is one big positive about Donald Trump, it’s the fact that he understands that meaningful job creation can only become a reality if the U.S. corporate tax system is overhauled.
In the first Clinton-Trump debate, he commented very briefly on his plan to reduce the corporate tax rate and to impose a substantial import duty on goods manufactured by foreign subsidiaries of U.S. companies that are brought in for sale here. He also said that, if elected, he would move to abolish estate and gift taxes.
In this blog article, I’ve restricted my comments to the subject of the possible consequences of changes to the corporate tax structure. I happen to agree with Mr. Trump that estate and gift taxes are not really necessary (as long as some other modifications are made to The Internal Revenue Code). I will discuss this topic sometime soon.

Say what you’d like about Donald Trump’s campaign, but I think most Americans would agree that it certainly isn’t boring . On the one hand, one has to question whether it makes sense to vote for a candidate who proposed building a 3,000 mile wall separating the United States from Mexico and who also advocated banning all Muslims from entering our country.
However, once in awhile, The Donald makes a valid point. I agree with him that corporate tax rates in the U.S. are too high and that this is a major factor why many businesses have moved their operations outside the country. Trump suggested (albeit briefly) that a 15% corporate tax rate would be more appropriate than the 35% – 40% range that applies today,when one takes into account State as well as Federal taxes.
The critics immediately condemned Mr. Trump for advocating tax breaks for the wealthiest 1% at the expense of everybody else.
However the truth is a bit more complex. The U.S. presently has one of the highest corporate tax rates in the world. The U.S. rate is exceeded only by the United Arab Emirates and Puerto Rico. The world-wide average corporate income tax rate, across 188 countries and tax jurisdictions, is 22.5 percent.

Trump’s suggestion to reduce the corporate tax rate to 15% immediately invited comparisons to Ronald Reagan’s experiment in the mid 1980’s to lower the top rate of Federal personal tax from 70% to 28%. The theory behind what became referred to as “Reaganomics” was that, if taxes on the wealthiest Americans were lowered substantially, they, the “movers and shakers”, would have an incentive to expand their businesses, invest in new equipment, and hire people. Reaganomics also became known as “trickle- down economics”, since the benefits given to the wealthy would presumably filter down to workers in general. However, notwithstanding his presumably good intentions, Reagan was accused of bringing in tax reductions mainly in order to reward his wealthy supporters.
In retrospect ,trickle down economics didn’t work as Reagan expected for two reasons. The first is that, although personal taxes were reduced, corporate taxes were left at unacceptably high rates and there were actually no real incentives for the millions of American small businesses. The second reason Reaganomics failed, is that globalization really began on a large scale in the mid-1980s and the focus of business expansion moved outside the U.S.
Mr. Reagan is famous for his plea to Mr. Gorbachev asking him to “ tear down the Berlin Wall”. Ironically, his request was clearly motivated by a desire to end repression and spread the freedoms we enjoy in America, Reagan’s speech was symptomatic of the call for the expansion of business into areas of the world where labor and overhead costs are significantly less than they are domestically.

Very few people are tax experts and most Americans are not interested in the complexities of the tax system. Those who blindly assume that a 15% corporate tax rate will encourage the wealthy few to accumulate millions and millions of cheaply-taxed profits in their companies are very much mistaken. There are provisions in the Internal Revenue Code that prohibit any business from accumulating profits, without additional taxes falling due, unless these profits are earmarked for business expansion. Any business is permitted to retain up to $250,000 of earnings. However, any additional retention is only permitted if these profits are needed to expand-by buying equipment, hiring additional workers etc. Failure to use accumulated profits for these purposes allows the IRS the discretion to impose further corporate taxes that will up the burden to an amount equivalent to that which is paid by individuals in the highest tax bracket.
What I am basically saying, is that limiting corporate income taxes to 15% as Donald Trump suggests, would provide a tremendous incentive for all businesses, including thousands upon thousands of privately-held small companies, to expand their operations. Obviously ,this would lead to more hiring and less unemployment.
Just for comparison purposes, Canada permits privately owned corporations to pay approximately 15% tax on the first $500,000 of annual business profits. Surprisingly, there is no requirement that the retained profits be used for business expansion. The business owners can, if the choose, use the retained earnings to accumulate investment capital. Canadian large businesses pay a tax rate of approximately 25%. The actual rate varies depending on the province or provinces in which a company operates
I believe that, if Trump’s suggestion to reduce corporate taxes is implemented, this would provide great incentives for small business expansion in the U.S.
However the question remains whether or not this would be sufficient to stop large businesses from moving their operations to countries such as Mexico. This brings me to the second suggestion the Mr. Trump made in the first debate. He proposed a 30% import duty on goods manufactured by foreign subsidiaries of U.S.parent companies which are then sold to the American parents for ultimate resale to customers in the U.S. Mr. Trump implied that the imposition of such a duty would make it unattractive for an American company to operate foreign subsidiaries, unless the intent is to sell goods to customers outside the U.S.
In order to determine whether (in addition to a reduction in the general corporate tax rate that I discussed above) Trump’s second measure has merit, I created a set of examples that follow the text of this blog.

Example one shows what happens if goods are manufactured in the United States. I have assumed sales figures as well as material, labor and overhead costs that would provide a profit before income taxes of 23%. My numbers are for illustration and comparison only. They are very simplistic.
The second example assumes that production is moved to Mexico. There are a couple of points that should be considered before reviewing this example. The first, is that the Mexican corporate tax rate is not much lower than the U.S. rate (30% vs 35%). The real advantage is that material, labor and overhead are presumably substantially less in Mexico. My figures again are arbitrary and are presented just to illustrate the concept of possible benefits of moving businesses outside the U.S..
In addition, I have constructed the example assuming the goods manufactured in Mexico are sold to the U.S. parent at a price that would give the U.S. parent a small profit on which the current 35% corporate tax rate would apply. Working the numbers in this example shows that the overall net profit that would be reported on the consolidated financial statements of the parent company and its subsidiary is much higher.
Surprisingly, the savings from moving production to Mexico in NOT in corporate taxes. The total corporate tax is actually greater. However, the U.S. treasury comes out with substantially less. The Mexican treasury reaps the benefit. Nevertheless, the overall net profit is much higher. The additional net profit is as a result of a substantial decrease in total production costs, including overhead. The additional net corporate profit arises at the expense of U.S. job losses
From example two, I conclude that that the shortfall in U.S. corporate tax revenues could be recovered by imposing a tax on profits made by a foreign subsidiary that are not repatriated back into the U.S. The only problem is that such a tax on unrepatriated profits would not bring back jobs to America. (Note that under current tax law,there is what I believe to be a serious loophole in the system whereby foreign business profits earned by a U.S. corporation through foreign subsidiaries is not taxed as long as the profits remain outside the U.S.)

In my third example, I assume that production remains in Mexico however a 30% import duty is imposed by the U.S. when the goods manufactured in Mexico are acquired by the U.S. parent company for ultimate sale in this country. At the same time, in drafting this example, I applied a corporate tax rate of 15% on the American parent’s profits instead of 35% . This third example incorporates BOTH of Donald Trump’s proposals.
If one makes an allowance for a 30% import duty, you will notice in reading this last example, that the Mexican subsidiary would have to charge significantly less for the product sold to the U.S. parent in order to allow the parent to make at least a small profit after the import duty.
The numbers in this example show that there would still be a substantial savings in total production costs because (obviously) labor, material and overhead would be cheaper in Mexico than in the United States.

However, in spite of reducing U.S. income tax rates, the imposition of a substantial import duty results in total government levies that eliminate a substantial portion (two-thirds in my example) of any of the cost savings. If the US also imposed a 20% tax on unrepatriated business profits, the additional charge would effectively make it unprofitable for U.S. companies to incur the costs of starting up operations outside the U.S.
Please note that no import duties would be levied if production outside the U.S. is sold to foreign customers. Nevertheless, it may prove beneficial to still charge a 20% tax on unrepatriated business income to encourage American corporations to manufacture domestically for export purposes.
What is unknown at this time is whether other countries would retaliate if the U.S. imposes large import duties on goods manufactured in these other countries by their foreign subsidiaries. What is, however, quite clear to me is that, without an overhaul of the U.S. tax system, it will be difficult for any future government to create worthwhile long-term jobs.
So, let’s not dismiss Donald Trump’s tax proposals out of hand- despite some of his other policies that most of us might consider unreasonable(to say the least). Even a stopped clock is right twice a day!
My examples follow:
Assumptions:
Sale to third parties $6,000 U.S. Federal corporate income tax rate
Material costs in U.S. $2,500 Currently 35%
Material costs in Mexico Trump proposal 15%
$2,500 x 70% $1,750* Mexican corporate tax rate 30%
Labor costs in U.S. $1,500 U.S duty imposed on goods from Mexico
Labor costs in Mexico Currently NIL
$1,500 x 30% $450 * Trump proposal 30%
Overhead in U.S. $600
Overhead in Mexico
$600 x 80% $480*
* Converted to U.S. dollars
Example 1: Goods are manufactured in U.S.
Sales $6,000
Cost of sales
Materials $ 2,500
Labor $ 1,500 $4,000
Gross profit $2,000
Overhead $ 600
Profit before income tax $1,400
U.S. corporate tax 35% $ 490
Net profit $ 910
Example 2: Production is moved to Mexico
Mexican corporation sells goods to U.S. parent for $5,500
U.S. corporation resells to third parties for $6,000 in order to make a small (taxable) profit
Sales by Mexican subsidiary to U.S. parent $5,500
Cost of sales
Materials $1,750
Labor $ 450 $2,200
Gross profit $3,300
Overhead $ 480
Profit before Mexican income tax $2,820
Mexican corporate income tax 30% $ 846
Net profit $1,974
Sales by U.S. parent to third parties $6,000
Cost of goods bought from Mexican subsidiary $5,500
Profit before U.S. corporate income tax $ 500
U.S. corporate tax 35% $ 175
Net profit $ 325
Conclusions:
The savings from moving production to Mexico in NOT in corporate taxes. The total corporate tax is actually higher – $1,021 ($846 +$155) versus $ 490. The additional tax is $1,021- $ 490= $ 531. However, the U.S. treasury comes out with $615 less ($490-$175).
Overall, however the net profit is much higher $2,299 ($1,974 +$325) versus $910.
The additional net profit is as a result of a substantial decrease in total production costs, including overhead. ($1,750 + $450 +$480) $2,680 versus
$4,600 ($2,500 +$1,500+ $600). $4,600-$2,680= $1,920
- The additional net corporate profit arises at the expense of U.S. job losses
Note: The shortfall in U.S. corporate tax revenue of $315 ($490-$175) could be recovered by imposing a tax of 16% (in this example) on profits made by a foreign subsidiary that are not repatriated into the U.S. ($1974 x 16%= $315.84).

However such a tax would not bring back jobs to the U.S.
Example 3: Production remains in Mexico. However a 30% import duty is imposed by the U.S. on the cost of goods manufactured in Mexico. At the same time, the U.S. corporate income tax rate is reduced from 35% to 15%.
In order for the U.S. parent corporation to make at least a small profit after having to pay the 30% import duty, the sale from the Mexican subsidiary, the sales price from the Mexican subsidiary to the U.S. parent would have to be reduced from $5,500 to $4,500. :
Sales by U.S. parent to third parties $6,000
Cost of goods bought from Mexican subsidiary $4,500
Profit before proposed import duty $1,500
Import duty 30% x $4,500 $1,350
Profit before U.S. corporate income tax $ 150
U.S. corporate tax 35% $ 22
Net profit $ 128
Sales by Mexican subsidiary to U.S. parent $4,500*
Cost of sales
Materials $1,750
Labor $ 450 $2,200
Gross profit $2,300
Overhead $ 480
Profit before Mexican income tax $1,820
Mexican corporate income tax 30% $ 546
Net profit $1,274
* $1,000 less than in Example 2 to offset the impact of the 30% duty to be paid by the U.S. parent. U.S. parent must show at least a small profit to satisfy the IRS.
Conclusions:
- By moving manufacturing operations to Mexico, there is still a savings of $1,920 in total production costs.
- However, total duties and taxes are:
U.S. corporate income tax $22
U.S. import duties collected $1,350
Total U.S. levies $1,372
Corporate taxes paid to Mexico $ 546
Total $1918
U.S. corporate income tax in Example 2 $ 175
Corporate taxes paid to Mexico in Example 2 $ 846
Total $1,021
Conclusion:
Although moving production to Mexico still reduces total operating costs by $1,920, the U.S. will collect additional taxes of $1,197 ($1,372-$175). This eliminates almost two-thirds of the cost savings.
If the U.S. also imposed a 20% tax on unrepatriated foreign subsidiary business profits, the additional levy of $255 (20% x $1,274) would effectively make it unprofitable for U.S. companies to incur the costs of starting up outside of the U.S.
Please note that, under these proposals, no import duties would be levied if a foreign subsidiary sells its production outside the U.S. Nevertheless, It may prove beneficial to still charge a 20% tax on unrepatriated foreign business income to encourage U.S. corporations to manufacture domestically for export purposes.

The post Even a Stopped Clock is Right Twice a Day: Donald Trump’s Tax Policy appeared first on Thoughts From Outside The Box.
source http://thoughtsfromoutsidethebox.com/2016/10/26/168/


















